Last year was a boom year for rookie QBs. It should go without saying that it is much too early to compare this class to the fabled ’83 class or even the excellent ’04 class, but with the increased importance of the quarterback , the sky is the limit for the class of 2012.
With that said, each quarterback in this class faces the dreaded sophomore slump this year. So who will climb the hill to greatness and who will fall back into the weed(en)s?
“Don’t worry. I got this.”
Not relevant unless the Black Death breaks out again: With all apologies to the mothers of B.J Coleman (Packers), Chandler Harnish (Colts), Ryan Lindley (Cardinals), and Brock Osweiler (Broncos) this is the bathwater of the 2012 QB draft class. Even in the deepest of dynasty leagues (and I’m in an insanely deep one myself), you should dispose of this slop without a second look.
Hyenas lurking about the lion’s kill: This group, consisting of Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins, share some intriguing similarities. Both were drafted to be backups to mobile (i.e. injury risk) quarterbacks. Both are much more traditional pocket passers and both had some ups and downs when thrust into the limelight as rookies. While Cousins provided the better results last season, Foles got more experience. Neither one should be drafted with the hope that they provide anything significant this year, but both could be valuable handcuffs to their injury prone starters. Foles has a chance to win the starting job outright and should still see action when (not if) Michael Vick goes down. Cousins only playing time will come when (it kills me to say that as an RGIII owner) he gets hurt. Still, if you had to put a ticking draft clock to my head, I’d say take Cousins over Foles, but that has as much to do with talent around him (especially on the O-line) as anything else.
Getting lost in the weeds: Yea, I used the pun before. So what? Come at me, bro. But seriously, don’t target Brandon Weeden. While I think he is less likely to regress than some of his fellow rookies, that is more a result of his rookie numbers being poor rather than his great skill. It was always baffling that a 28 year old system quarterback got drafted so high, but Cleveland. ‘Nough said. I could see Weeden being a serviceable back up for a real team, but in the fantasy world, stay along the beaten path and don’t pick up any Weedens. (I WILL BEAT THIS PUN INTO THE GROUND WHICH IS FULL OF WEEDS!!! PUNS!)
Captain Regression: After incredible rookie seasons, it is only natural that Andrew Luck, RGIII, and Russell Wilson experience some regression. The NFL is a league of adjustments and those making the adjustments will set their sights on this trio with gusto. For RGIII and Russell Wilson, those adjustments could be especially rough. Much of their success (and first year starter Colin Kaepernick who was a class of ’11 alum) came through a new read option system. New systems are great, but not always lasting. For ever West Coast offense there is a Wildcat. With the speed of NFL defenders, I worry that the Read Option will be more Wildcat than West Coast. RGIII also has to worry about his mobility decreasing too. Another knee injury curtailed his effectiveness at the end of last season, and with the amount of punishing hits that RGIII takes more injuries are probable. While Wilson seems to avoid those big hits, he has a different worry. A lack of people to throw to. Though this didn’t hurt him drastically last season, this could be problematic when teams adjust to his game.
Andrew Luck faces a different set of problems. Less mobile, he is less likely to be hurt literally or in the sense of adjustments to the read option. The problem I foresee surfaced in his rookie year. He was very turnover prone last season, committing 18 INTS and fumbling 10 times. That is a worrying sign. Additionally, with a new offensive coordinator, the Colts are likely to go long less this year than last.
The one advantage that Luck might have over RGIII and especially Wilson could be that his team will probably play catch-up more. That is why Luck is the jewel of this group.
King of the Hill: Of all the second year QBs out there, Ryan Tannehill is the one I expect to beat the slump. He was better than I expected coming out of Texas A&M and I think he will be better than last year as well. He has legit arm strength and with a weapon like Michael Wallace the ability to push it down the field. Reports out of the Dolphins camp have Tannehill showing fantastic precision as well. His numbers weren’t so gaudy as to beg for regression, and his work ethic seems to be top notch. Additionally, he garners much less attention than Luck, RGIII and Wilson and therefore should go much lower in the draft. He may not runaway with the title, but I predict that Ryan Tannehill will be the most valuable sophomore QB this season.
Who Cares? 