The Olympics Are Coming

The Olympics are almost here. No not that summer swill that the man forces down our throats during leap years. I’m talking about the  wonderful  Winter Olympics.

A member of Russia’s women’s curling team. Yay Curling!

In the winter Olympics, we get exposed (or bundled up?) to a variety of unique and delightfully quirky sports such as curling and the luge.

Say it with me. “Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge.”

But my favorite Winter Olympic sport of all is hockey. From the Miracle on Ice to last year’s unexpected silver to the Canadian hosts, the US has produced many stirring moments.

In 2010, the Americans snuck up on the rest of the world. That won’t happen in Sochi since the Americans will return a fairly similar roster. One area that might be different, though, is in goal.

Last time out, Ryan Miller stood on his head for two weeks and kept the Americans rolling. This time around, however, Miller might not even make the team. He has struggled since the 2010 Olympics (too be fair, the Sabres are really, really bad. Yay Buffalo! The Cleveland of the NHL.) and will need a good season for the Sabres to secure a roster spot.

Jonathan Quick

Who are the competition for Miller?

Jonathan Quick, LA Kings

If you are unfamiliar with Quick’s exploits the past two playoffs, then you must not be a hockey fan. Quick’s play was like Stonewall Jackson without his own side killing him. (Or owning slaves. That too.) His Goals Against Average has been under 2 the last two years. Simply, he has been otherworldly and will probably only lose the job if he got hurt.

Craig Anderson

Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators

Unlike Quick, any lack of familiarity with Craig Anderson’s work is understandable. He has been around the league much longer, and until recently, with much less distinction than Quick. Last year, Anderson, 32, finally had a true breakout year, but he did it in the relative obscurity (to Americans) of Ottawa. Anderson is good, but much more of an unknown.  Think of that awesome group you listen to that no one has heard of.  They are good, but can they make it big time? That’s Craig Anderson.

Corey Schneider

Corey Schneider

Speaking of Americans working in the wild and woolly Canadian hinterlands, Schneider backed up 2010 gold medal winner Roberto Luongo for the Vancouver Canucks. Schneider was supposed to make Luongo expendable last season, but was unable to grasp a hold on the starting job. That didn’t stop the Devils from trading for him to be the post-Brodeur  answer. Whether he can actually do that is anyone’s guess, however. He has been good as a back up and as a part-time starter, but we have yet to see if he can even hack it as an NHL starter, let alone at the Olympics. I’m skeptical, but people that get paid to scout the NHL are quite high on his talent, so I’m gonna guess that it’s me and not them. Just a guess though…

That’s it. That’s the competition for Miller. Four goalies for three spots. For a talented vet like Miller, you gotta like those odds. If I was a betting man, I’d wager that Quick starts for the Americans in Sochi with Anderson and Miller backing him up.

Nepotism Ain’t What It Used To Be

If you have ever played organized sports, you have experienced one of the harsh realities of the world: the world runs on nepotism (second place goes to Dunkin Donuts on which America runs).

We’ve all experienced seeing the coaches kid pitch and hit clean up in Little League. The quarterback of your Pop Warner team was probably the coaches little twerp. The hockey and soccer coaches put there pride and joy up front to get the glory of scoring. If you think this isn’t the case, your just lying to yourself.*

Then there is Creighton University. Their men’s basketball team is a prime candidate for nepotism. Their coach, Greg McDermott, just happens to be the father of the team’s  offensive focal point, Doug McDermott. Sure, Doug is a candidate for player of the year, so it isn’t really nepotism, but you know. details…

Father Knows Best: Father Greg McDermott shares an in-game moment with son, Doug.

Details aside, or better yet, actually looking at the details of Creighton reveals something rather extraordinary. Recently, the NCAA granted Creighton player Grant Gibbs another year of eligibility. The only problem for Creighton was that their scholarship quota was used up.

Here’s where the story gets touching (and anti-nepotism-y). Creighton’s coach, instead of dropping one of his lesser players from scholarship, revoked his son’s scholarship. He figured he could take the financial hit of his son’s tuition.

At a time when the NCAA is taking multiple black eyes over selling college players jerseys and mishandling investigations, it is important to remember that, as this story shows, not all is rotten in the state of college athletics.

*Admittedly, looking back at my own time in youth sports, the kids coaches did tend to be the most talented too. Like I said, details…

Fantasy Land: Russian Roulette (Running Back Style)

Step right up. Place your bets. Which running back will stay healthy

In part two of our (Frank Barber and mine) look at the upcoming fantasy season, we play everyone’s favorite game: predict running back totals; better known as who stays healthy.  Of course, if we could predict that, we’d be getting paid a lot of money. (SPOILER ALERT: we aren’t getting paid a lot of money). So buyer beware.

Matt Forte – 1600 Yards From Scrimmage (YFS), 55 recs, 10 total TDs

Evan: With Lovie Smith, offense has not always been Chicago’s forte, even as their offense has been mostly Forte. Now with Marc Trestman, an offensive minded coach, Forte could be in line for even more offensive production. Of course, with someone who has featured so heavily for so long, there is always the risk of injury. Forte has struggled the past couple of years to avoid this curse. With how often he sees the questionable status of the injury report, he could be a New England Patriot. Despite the week-to-week uncertainty, Forte has at least been able to play 75 out of 80 regular season games in his career. All of this seems to indicate that he should be able to reach these numbers pretty easily. Yet, I remain hesitant. He has only reached the yardage and reception mark in two years (2008 and 2010 in yards and 2008 and 2009 in receptions), and he has only achieved double digit TDs in 2008. Still, Forte is a great talent and with a better offensive system he should be able to reach the yardage mark and exceed the reception total. I just don’t see getting TD’s ever being his forte though.

Frank: Last season Matt Forte battled injuries and an inept Chicago offense that failed to properly utilize their best offensive weapon not named Brandon Marshall and still managed to put up solid numbers. First year coach Marc Trestman has revamped the Bears offense and has indicated that Forte will play a larger role in both the rushing and passing game. This would make him especially valuable in PPR leagues. However Michael Bush is still in the wings to poach Forte’s TD potential. Forte’s 44 receptions last year were a career low – he has averaged 53 throughout his career. Assuming an uptick in targets Forte could set new career high in receptions and yards from scrimmage. If Forte can stay healthy, I think he will thrive in Trestman’s new offense and go over that stat line. Expect production along the lines of 1700 yards from scrimmage, 65 receptions and 10 TDs.

David Wilson – 1000 YFS, 25 recs, 10 TTDs

Evan: Wilson got a lot of love this offseason after the Giants jettisoned last year’s first-stringer Ahmad Bradshaw. He is a dynamic athlete who consistently wows coaches with his physical talent. The problem is his coach. Whereas Forte has a coach who should utilize his talents more than last season, Wilson is stuck with Tom Coughlin. Coughlin isn’t a bad coach; in fact, that is the problem. Coughlin is such a good coach that he insists on his players doing the little things. Wilson doesn’t do the little things yet. He is bad at blocking and reading a blitz pickup. With Coughlin at the helm, these problems will keep Wilson off the field not only on third down, but also on a quite a few first and second downs. On another team, those problems wouldn’t prevent an athlete like Wilson from reaching these modest goals, but on the Giants, I would temper my expectations. Yes, the upside is there, but I wouldn’t draft Wilson till later in the draft since fellow Giants RB Andre Brown, a more fundamentally sound back, is just as likely to win the starting job.

Frank: Over the final four weeks of last season only six running backs had more points than David Wilson. His raw athleticism and explosiveness were very impressive and he ended the season on a high note. However, prior to those last four weeks, Wilson’s propensity to cough up the ball had him bouncing in and out of Tom Coughlin’s doghouse while Andre Brown excelled as the starter. The latest reports out of Giant’s camp have Brown and Wilson sharing carries this coming season. Wilson is more athletic and explosive than Brown and should get plenty of looks in the passing game. Out of the two backs, I like Wilson more long term, however I think Wilson’s draft price right now is too high. Ranked at #17, he is generally being drafted in the late 3rd round early fourth – for that price there are other RBs available that have a better shot of being the clear #1. I think Wilson’s propensity to fumble does him in and he ends up back in Coughlin’s doghouse. I predict Wilson goes under and ends up closer to 750 yards from scrimmage, 25 receptions, and 7 TDs.

Jamaal Charles – 1800 TYDs, 55 recs, 10 TTDs

Evan: On an insipid Kansas City Chiefs offense, Charles was the lone bright spot. He almost achieved the yardage total while hauling in only 35 receptions. He even managed to score all six of the Chiefs touchdowns last year. (I jest, the Chiefs had at least seven TDs last season.) Now the Chiefs have Andy Reid, who has made Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy fantasy gods (especially in PPR leagues), as their coach. Charles did have a horrific, season-ending injury early in 2011, but he has otherwise stayed healthy in his five year career so injury shouldn’t be any more of a risk than other RBs. With Reid’s West Coast offense tossing him short swing and screen passes, Charles should rack up the receptions and yardage. The TDs, on the other hand, are more of a toss-up. Yes, McCoy had 20 TDs in 2011 with Reid, but he only had 5 last year. Still, if I had to guess, I would guess that Charles will not only reach that TD mark, but beat it.

Frank: Jamaal Charles is one of the most talented backs in the NFL and still only 26 years old. He is poised to have a huge year in Andy Reid’s new offense in Kansas City. Sure, Andy Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but his offenses have also featured some of the most reliable and high-scoring fantasy RBs over the years. I expect Jamaal Charles to have comparable production to Brian Westbrook in his heyday. Last year, Charles had 1725 yards from scrimmage but only 6 TDs. Alex Smith needs an offensive system based on short quick throws. This will benefit Charles as he will get plenty of looks in the flat and he has the speed to turn it up-field. Furthermore Charles TD totals should go up just based on the law of averages. Expect Charles to set new career highs to the tune of 2000 yards from scrimmage, 60 receptions and 10 TDs.

Maurice Jones-Drew – 1600 TYDs, 40 recs, 12 TTDs

Evan: When  I was a kid, I loved those choose your own adventure books. Do you turn left or right at the fork in the road? One leads you to glory, the other a dungeon. Of course, as a kid if you guessed wrong, you could just go back to the previous page and change your decision until you got the adventure you wanted. Maurice Jones-Drew is a lot like those books: is he healthy? top 5 back. Is he injured? #firstroundbust. Unlike those books from my childhood, however, you don’t get a redo on fantasy football drafts. MJD is a lot like Forte, always nicked up, but when you look back at his career, he has played most of the regular season games in every season. Other than 2012, MJD has played at least 14 games every season of his seven year career. Personally, I would avoid him in Round 1 and maybe even Round 2 of drafts since MJD is a bigger risk than other backs. However, if you are less risk adverse than I, gamble that he stays healthy and you could reap some big rewards.

Frank: Owners who drafted MJD with a top ten pick last year certainly felt the full pain of his season-ending injury as he had a paltry 500 yards from scrimmage last year with 2 TDs. However, MJD claims he is healthy, pain free, and poised for a bounce back year. With Blaine Gabbert somehow still the starting quarterback in Jacksonville, the Jaguars will need MJD to keep them in games. Expect them to rely heavily on MJD in the offense which will give him plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. Right now MJD is ranked at #16 for RBs and has been going on average late in the second round/early third round. As a RB2 he has immense upside and could possible even reclaim his RB1 status if he can stay healthy and the Jags stay bad (one of these is more likely – I’ll let you guess which one.) I think MJD is good for 1600 yards from scrimmage, but I think he will go over in the receptions catching closer to 55 receptions over the course of the season.

Reggie Bush – 1300 TYDs, 60 recp, 8 TTDs

Evan: Whether Reggie Bush stays healthy or not is not the only issue to consider when deciding if Bush will reach these numbers. How the Lions utilize him is the bigger question. His time in New Orleans saw him used as a more of a receiver out of the backfield, while Miami used him as a more traditional running back. If the Lions follow the New Orleans playbook, and use him as a pass catching back, he will be more valuable in a PPR league. If he is featured as he was in Miami, he will be just as valuable in a standard league but less valuable in a PPR league. Reports out of Detroit seem to indicate that Bush will be catching passes more than running the ball.  This is actually bad news on the injury front. On grass and as a feature back, Bush played 31 out of 32 games for the Dolphins. On turf and as a swing back for the Saints, Bush has only played 16 games in one of five seasons. For that reason, I have to expect Bush to go under the yardage and reception marks, though he will get closer to the reception mark than the yardage mark. The TDs are definitely reachable, but I don’t think he gets so many TDs as to overlook the lack of yardage and the injury worries.

Frank: After a disappointing run in New Orleans, Reggie Bush has done much better the last two seasons in Miami putting up respectable rushing and receiving numbers. The move to Detroit should only help his value especially in PPR formats. Bush has good hands and the running back tandem in Detroit last year featured a lot of screens and short passes to the flat. With Bush as the clear #1 the only thing standing between him and a very good season is his health. Bush is always an injury risk and the increased workload in Detroit could result in him being injured. If he stays healthy he is a solid RB2 in PPR leagues. However, I just don’t believe that he will stay healthy all year. Taking into account some time off for injuries I think Bush will go under that stat line. Expect something more along the lines of 1100 yards from scrimmage; 55 receptions; and 6 TDs. If you draft Bush be sure to snag Mikel Leshoure as a late round handcuff for when Bush is injured.

Best Commercials of the Summer

I’m not sure if it’s just that time of the year, or if something is in the ad men’s water, but there have been a couple of really clever sports related ads. So I’ve complied a few of them here for your viewing pleasure.

Unlikely Friends

We’ve already shared this one, but it’s for a good cause, so here’s the Phillie Phanatic and Mr. Met having lunch for a good cause:

Football Is Football

Here is a clever spot for NBC/Comcast/EvilCorporateOverlord’s Premier League broadcasts coming this fall (even funnier because a franchise like Spurs would hire this kind of coach. Go Gunners!):

Would the Real Slim Shady Please Man(ning) Up

These are my best of the best. Did I forget one? Think you’ve got a better one? Let me know with a hyperlink to the video in the comments section.

Fantasy Land: Five Quarterbacks

In a new series, I will be looking at some fantasy projections for five guys from each offensive position. But to provide some more insight, I’ve enlisted the help of my friend, the Stubby Shillelagh – better known as Frank Barber. Treat him kindly my loyal readers.

Don’t you wish your QB was hot like me?

Tom Brady – 4000 passing yards, 30 TDs, 8 INTS

Evan: This is a relatively pessimistic outlook for Tom Brady.  Brady hasn’t had fewer than 30 TDs since 2009 and he still got 28 that year. He averaged around 4,500 yards and 8 INTs over those years . He should be a lock to exceed those totals, right? Wrong. Between age, a couple of young backs coming into their own, and the utter decimation of his receiving corps, Tom Brady could very well struggle to reach even these modest (by his standards) totals. My bet, though, is that he finishes in the vicinity of 4,000 yards and the 8 INTs and blows by the 30 TDs total. Even with all the negatives, Terrific Tom is too, well, terrific not to reach these middling goals.

Frank: Tom Brady is and has been one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL since the early 2000s. However, after a New York Jets-esque offseason filled with drama and the signing of Tim Tebow (coincidence? I think not… ) the future of New England is filled with question marks.  Tom Brady’s #1 target, Wes Welker, has left the Patriots for Denver and Peyton Manning. Last year Welker accounted for 28% of Brady’s passing yards, and the year before that 30%. The Patriots have attempted to make up for the loss of Welker by signing Danny Amendola—a highly talented receiver with great hands and a high ratio of catches to targets. He has been described as “the poor man’s Welker” and seems poised for a breakout year. If Amendola stays healthy he has the ability to replace Welker, but with his injury history (yet to play a full season in his career), that is a big IF.  The tight end situation is even more tenuous. With Aaron Hernandez cut and Rob Gronkowski likely out until at least Week 6, the Patriots have been running Jake Ballard and Tim Tebow out at tight end. Let that sink in. The duo of Hernandez and Gronkowski accounted for 26% of Brady’s passing yards last year. In 2011 it was a whopping 43%! The loss of Hernandez and Welker, the absence of Gronkowski for who knows how long, the high injury risk of Amendola and lack of alternative targets leaves Tom Brady’s fantasy value very clouded. To be clear, I do not think Brady will be valueless in fantasy—a below average Brady is still going to be better than an Andy Dalton or Eli Manning—but do not expect the Tom Brady of 2011. I think that you can expect fantasy value more along the lines of 3700 yards, 27 TDs, and 8 INTs.

Colin Kaepernick – 3000 passing yards,  500 rushing yards, 25 total TDS (rushing and passing), 7 INTs

Evan: Although not technically in line for the dreaded “sophomore slump” (class of ’11), Kaepernick will be a second year starter. After replacing Alex Smith, Kaepernick lit the NFL on fire, but he did it more with his legs than his arms, which were effective but not sexy. If Kaepernick’s rushing totals dip, he will struggle to replicate the fantasy magic. I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating,  the NFL is a league of adjustments. The Read Option offense will be less effective. Kaepernick will be able to run some still and is big enough to avoid major injuries, but I don’t think he will produce consistently on the ground this year. Even with my pessimism, these numbers are very low. He should be able to average 200 passing yards and 40 rushing yards a game. Those are eminently achievable numbers. I don’t think he will vastly exceed any of these predictions, but he shouldn’t fall short of them either.

Frank: Colin Kaepernick took over the starting QB job in San Francisco last year following an injury to Alex Smith and never looked back. He was excellent in the playoffs leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl where they lost. This year both real life and fantasy expectations are high for the young Kaepernick. Many fantasy gurus have him ranked in the top 10 fantasy QBs for this season, and he draws many comparisonsto the other two successful mobile rookie QBs from last year: Russell Wilson and RGIII. However, I think that fantasy expectations for Kaepernick are higher than warranted. In 8 regular season starts last year Kaepernick threw for 1,725 yards, rushed for 304 yards and 13 passing/rushing TDs. That is only a half of a season at starter and puts him on pace for 3450 passing yards, 600 rushing yards and 26 TDs – roughly the stat line we placed for him this year. That would place him in the top ten QBs by points in 2012. However, Michael Crabtree, Kaepernick’s #1 target, is out for the year with an injury. Vernon Davis reappeared in the playoffs but he and Kaepernick have never shown any chemistry. San Francisco did sign Anquan Boldin, who I think will be an underrated addition for the 49ers, but Boldin alone is not enough to help Kaepernick. The 49ers will still be a run first – pass second team as they pound opposing teams with Frank Gore while stifling them with their defense. Therefore, Expect something more along the lines of 2800 passing yards, 400 rushing, and 18 TDs – not quite worth the top ten slot he has in fantasy QB rankings.

Joe Flacco – 3500 passing yards, 22 TDs, 10 INTs

Evan: What will it take for people to believe in Joe Cool? He led his team to a Super Bowl last year and was one massive drop from back-to-back Super Bowls. He’s convinced me of his ability, not just to reach these numbers (because Sam Bradford did that last year, though with more INTs), but to exceed these numbers. I know the reasons not to trust Flacco: Ray Rice, he’s never exceeded this level of production, he lost his best TE and WR this off season. Even still, Baltimore paid him to be great and will rely on Flacco more and more to be just that. Greatness isn’t 3,500 yards passing with 22 TDs. Look for Flacco to sling the ball around more this season and surpass the 4,000 yard mark and 27 TDs. All this passing should mean higher INT totals too, but the yardage and TDs should make up for it.

Frank: In the NFL today everyone wants an elite QB; the term is so overused that it really has no meaning anymore. If you play better than Tony Romo (i.e. win big games), you can probably find someone on ESPN to call you an elite QB. This is exactly what Joe Flacco did last year – played very well and won the Super Bowl. Suddenly he is now better than Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady – I mean, they didn’t win the Super Bowl last year right?  In reality, Joe Flacco is a solid real life QB who rarely puts up big fantasy points. His overall stats last year were very good: 3,817 yards and 22 TDs, but the Ravens offseason has not been kind to Flacco’s offense. Anquan Boldin, his #1 target and most reliable receiver was cut by Baltimore, Dennis Pitta, the starting TE is out for the year with an injury and Baltimore’s defense is not as good as it used to be. However, he still has some talent around him with the likes of Torrey Smith and Ray Rice, who  is still a beast especially when Flacco gets him the ball in the flat. Sans his rookie season, Flacco has consistently thrown for at least 3600 passing yards per season. I see no reason that will stop even with the loss of Boldin and Pitta. I am predicting that Flacco will go OVER that stat line to the tune of 3700 passing yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Flacco is a top option for a QB2 in two quarterback leagues and certainly a  serviceable low-cost option in 12 team leagues or larger.

Carson Palmer – 4000 passing yards, 25 TDs, 15 INTs

Evan: Carson Palmer is the one QB on this list who’s situation has improved from last year. Moving from the dubious Raiders WR corps to the land of Fitzgerald and Floyd can only be good for Palmer. Or so it would seem. The problems that Palmer’s production will encounter are twofold. First, Arizona’s offensive line. It’s atrocious. Oddly enough, in order to throw the deep ball, you have to have time. That is something that Palmer’s new O-line might not be able to give. Additionally, Palmer has been the king of garbage time in recent years, and Arizona’s defense is a lot better than Oakland’s. This should lead to less garbage time, ergo less yardage for Palmer. The talent around Palmer should still let him get close to 25 TDs and 15 INTs, but I don’t think he sniffs 4,000 yards in the desert this year.

Frank: Carson Palmer’s first full season in Oakland was a real life nightmare as the Raiders stumbled to a 4-12 record. Palmer’s stats, however, were surprisingly glitzy as he threw for 4,000 yards and 22 TDs with a less than stellar receiving corps. Sure, most of those stats were garbage time stats, but there is hope for 2013. Palmer was traded to the Arizona Cardinals where he will take over a team that has fielded a comedy of errors at QB since Kurt Warner retired. No one should be happier about Palmer’s addition than Larry Fitzgerald, who might be the best WR in the NFL if he ever had someone who could throw to him. Well this year, he does, and Palmer stands to benefit greatly from having Fitzgerald as his #1 target. Behind Fitzgerald is a quietly solid receiving corps headed by 2nd year man Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and possibly even speed demon Patrick Peterson. This excellent set of receivers should provide plenty of targets for Palmer to rack up the yards and TDs. Furthermore, Bruce Arians showed last year in Indianapolis that he likes high flying offenses and is not afraid to let his QB air out the ball. I am buying into the Palmer hype all the way. I predict Palmer passes for 4100 yards,  27 TDs, and 15 INTs. Palmer is poised for a great year, and if you are the high risk, high reward type of drafter, Palmer is a low cost option who could bring big returns. Draft late and enjoy the rewards.

Matt Ryan – 4700 passing yards, 35 TDs, 13 INTs

Evan: These numbers ask the question: can Matt Ryan do what he did last year? In a word: yes. I don’t think he will do much more than last year, but I think he has the talent and the talent around him to repeat. The Falcons passing attack will put up numbers and Ryan will look good. If I have one hesitation, it would be the TD total. The addition of Steven Jackson could lead to some more red zone running. Still, 30 TDs shouldn’t be out of reach for Ryan. And those numbers scream: Buy, Buy, Buy.

Frank: Last year Matt Ryan threw for 4719 yards and 32 touchdowns – and with two of the best wide receivers in the game in Roddy White and Julio Jones, the return of Tony Gonzalez for one more year and the signing of Stephen Jackson there is nothing but bright skies ahead for Atlanta and Matt Ryan. The White/Jones tandem did not disappoint in 2012 as they combined for 2549 yards and 17 TDs, and they should continue their excellent play in 2013. Tony Gonzalez return to the Falcons for one more year at TE will benefit Matt Ryan more than anyone else. Furthermore, the addition of Stephen Jackson gives Ryan a mobile target out of the backfield with great hands, unlike Michael Turner whose mobility and speed was comparable to a large boulder. Expect the addition of Jackson to help Ryan both in yards and TDs. Atlanta was one game away from the Super Bowl last year and have only gotten better this offseason. I am predicting Matt Ryan will excel to the tune of 4900 yards, 38 TDs and 15 INTs. Hot-lanta’s offense will be just that – and Matt Ryan’s fantasy owners will be loving the explosive high scoring output in 2013.

Fantasy Land: Sophomore Slumps

Last year was a boom year for rookie QBs. It should go without saying that it is much too early to compare this class to the fabled ’83 class or even the excellent ’04 class, but with the increased importance of the quarterback , the sky is the limit for the class of 2012.

With that said, each quarterback in this class faces the dreaded sophomore slump this year. So who will climb the hill to greatness and who will fall back into the weed(en)s?

“Don’t worry. I got this.”

Not relevant unless the Black Death breaks out again: With all apologies to the mothers of B.J Coleman (Packers), Chandler Harnish (Colts), Ryan Lindley (Cardinals), and Brock Osweiler (Broncos) this is the bathwater of the 2012 QB draft class. Even in the deepest of dynasty leagues (and I’m in an insanely deep one myself), you should dispose of this slop without a second look.

Hyenas lurking about the lion’s kill: This group, consisting of Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins, share some intriguing similarities. Both were drafted to be backups to mobile (i.e. injury risk) quarterbacks. Both are much more traditional pocket passers and both had some ups and downs when thrust into the limelight as rookies. While Cousins provided the better results last season, Foles got more experience. Neither one should be drafted with the hope that they provide anything significant this year, but both could be valuable handcuffs to their injury prone starters. Foles has a chance to win the starting job outright and should still see action when (not if) Michael Vick goes down. Cousins only playing time will come when (it kills me to say that as an RGIII owner) he gets hurt. Still, if you had to put a ticking draft clock to my head, I’d say take Cousins over Foles, but that has as much to do with talent around him (especially on the O-line) as anything else.

Getting lost in the weeds: Yea, I used the pun before. So what? Come at me, bro. But seriously, don’t target Brandon Weeden. While I think he is less likely to regress than some of his fellow rookies, that is more a result of his rookie numbers being poor rather than his great skill. It was always baffling that a 28 year old system quarterback got drafted so high, but Cleveland. ‘Nough said. I could see Weeden being a serviceable back up for a real team, but in the fantasy world, stay along the beaten path and don’t pick up any Weedens. (I WILL BEAT THIS PUN INTO THE GROUND WHICH IS FULL OF WEEDS!!! PUNS!)

Captain Regression: After incredible rookie seasons, it is only natural that Andrew Luck, RGIII, and Russell Wilson experience some regression. The NFL is a league of adjustments and those making the adjustments will set their sights on this trio with gusto. For RGIII and Russell Wilson, those adjustments could be especially rough. Much of their success (and first year starter Colin Kaepernick who was a class of ’11 alum) came through a new read option system. New systems are great, but not always lasting. For ever West Coast offense there is a Wildcat. With the speed of NFL defenders, I worry that the Read Option will be more Wildcat than West Coast. RGIII also has to worry about his mobility decreasing too. Another knee injury curtailed his effectiveness at the end of last season, and with the amount of punishing hits that RGIII takes more injuries are probable. While Wilson seems to avoid those big hits, he has a different worry. A lack of people to throw to. Though this didn’t hurt him drastically last season, this could be problematic when teams adjust to his game.

Andrew Luck faces a different set of problems. Less mobile, he is less likely to be hurt literally or in the sense of adjustments to the read option. The problem I foresee surfaced in his rookie year.  He was very turnover prone last season, committing 18 INTS and fumbling 10 times. That is a worrying sign. Additionally, with a new offensive coordinator, the Colts are likely to go long less this year than last.

The one advantage that Luck might have over RGIII and especially Wilson could be that his team will probably play catch-up more. That is why Luck is the jewel of this group.

King of the Hill: Of all the second year QBs out there, Ryan Tannehill is the one I expect to beat the slump. He was better than I expected coming out of Texas A&M and I think he will be better than last year as well. He has legit arm strength and with a weapon like Michael Wallace the ability to push it down the field. Reports out of the Dolphins camp have Tannehill showing fantastic precision as well. His numbers weren’t so gaudy  as to beg for regression, and his work ethic seems to be top notch. Additionally, he garners much less attention than Luck, RGIII and Wilson and therefore should go much lower in the draft. He may not runaway with the title, but I predict that Ryan Tannehill will be the most valuable sophomore QB this season.

Hang Ten: USA Soccer Continues Streaking

With that 3-1 take down of Honduras, the US has now stretched their record winning streak to ten games. No losses. No ties. Just good, old, American wins. George Washington wouldn’t have had any time for this tie stuff and now neither do the Stars and Stripes.

The skeptics will point out how none of the teams that the US has faced in its last 10 games have been anywhere close to the skill level of the Belgian side that beat us 4-2 in May. Fine. Whatever. Be that way. It’s not our fault we play in CONCACAF. You can only beat who you face.

Landon Donovan scores the second U.S. goal Wednesday against Honduras.

Still, the difference from past winning runs to this one is a difference of quality. Not necessarily in the quality of the opposition, but in the quality of the US side dispatching opponents. The US has played with far more class and flair now than at any time I can remember, even that wonderful bunch that reached the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup.

Again, you can point to the quality of the opposition, but remember, in the Gold Cup (where half of their streak has come), the US is also fielding a B-team. We have faced both Honduras and Costa Rica, and bossed the play, winning 3-1 and 1-0 respectively. You can point out that the US has only had one shut out against while playing against teams like Belize, Cuba and El Salvador (and the shutout was against Costa Rica oddly enough), when you score 19 goals in five games, keeping a clean sheet is much less of an imperative.

In the past the US has struggled to unlock teams when they play a park-the-bus style defense. Not now. This US team has shown the creativity to break down anything thrown their way and then to break it down again and again.

The bottom line is that the US is finally playing with the verve and pizazz that Jurgen Klinsmann promised when he was hired. Pundits should like Jeff Carlisle should fault finding with the quality of opponents and appreciate a fine spell of the beautiful game for the Stars and Stripes.

If the analysts are really so concerned about the quality of the opposition, perhaps they should hang ten on the switching confederations bandwagon.

Going, Going, Gone

Ryan Braun is an a juicer. Confirmed and admitted. Yes, he failed a drug test last year, but he was able to lawyer his way out of that one. Not this time.

 

This time, he has no escape. His involvement with the known steroid providers at Biogenesis has done what a failed drug test was not able to do: suspend Braun for taking steroids. MLB has suspended him for the remainder of the season and rightfully so.

Normally, I would like to credit a man for admitting his mistake and owning up to it. I won’t do that with Braun. I can’t do that with Braun.  This is a man who categorically denied taking steroids last year even though he only avoided suspension based on a technicality. He hasn’t been as vocal for as long as someone like Lance Armstrong, but that is the type of fiendish behavior that Braun is associated with.

When you defend yourself so stringently against steroid accusations only to come out after getting caught and say, ‘I now realize…’ you are a punk. You have no credibility. You are a joke. And although MLB will let him come back and play at some point next season, I would like to see him gone forever.

I can forgive a juicer. What I can’t forgive is a bold face lie. And Braun is a bold-faced liar. He is on the same level as Rafael Palmeiro who wagged his finger at Congress saying that he didn’t take steroids only to later test positive for PEDs.

I have more respect for a guy like Jose Conseco who has been open and honest about his drug use. Yes, Conseco has pulled a lot of crazy stuff to make a buck in retirement, but he has been a crusader against PED’s in baseball and honest about his past use.

Braun is simply a liar. A disingenuous, egotistical fraud. The official punishment from MLB is not enough. Because of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, it can’t be enough. Hopefully, however the media and the fans will engage in plenty of schadefreude to properly shame the Jewish Juicer.

TGI The AL Central (Buy or Sell)

TGIF. Thank goodness it’s Friday. In the case of the AL Central, thank goodness for the Cleveland Indians. Without the Indians somewhat surprising resurgence, this division would be more boring than watching grass grow (though a good paint drying session would still top watching this division). Fortunately for every baseball fan outside of the Detroit area (where there are fewer and fewer people anyways), we live in a world were the Cleveland Indians are relevant. I mean, nothing to see God. No need to smite the Cleveland Indians. They suck. You need not raise up your anger against the city of Cleveland again…

1. Detroit Tigers (52-42) BUYERS

Everyone expected the Tigers to run away with this division. Having a lineup with Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera will do that for you. And it isn’t just those two. A savvy signing of Torii Hunter in the offseason, Victor Martinez coming back from a knee injury and speedy Austin Jackson are nice pieces to put with the Bash Brothers. Throw-in a scorching Jhonny Peralta and the only thing surprising about this offense is that they are merely second in the AL in runs scored.

On the surface, the Tigers pitching looks good too. They are third in WHIP, fourth in opponents batting average and sixth in ERA. All good numbers, right? But here’s where numbers lie: the Tigers, while having the best starting rotation in the league, they have the worst bullpen of any contender (twelfth in ERA). With stars like Justin Verlander, break-out sensation Matt Scherzer (I WILL NOT REGRET TRADING HIM AND HARVEY FOR BRAUN IN MY FANTASY LEAGUE!!!) and quality arms such as Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, it isn’t hard to understand why the Tigers starters have been so good. And because their starters have been so good, manager Jim Leyland has had his starters pitch the most innings in the league. With good reason too, since the bullpen has utterly unreliable. It started in Spring Training when rookie Bruce Rondon struggled adapting to the closers role and continued when they had to bring back Jose Valverde only to see him struggle. Luckily for the Tigers, Joaquin Benoit has brought stability to the back-end of the bullpen. This, of course, still leaves Jim Leyland relying on his starters going eight innings to get to Benoit though.

Verdict: If it isn’t obvious to you by now, I… I don’t know… Bullpen. Bullpen. BULLPEN! The Tigers may not need a closer any more, but getting a seventh inning and an eighth inning guy is imperative. If one of those guys happened to already be a closer, than all the better. Other then that obvious need, the Tigers could use a veteran outfield bat off the bench if they can find him on the cheap.

2. Cleveland Indians (51-44) BUYERS

In the lede, I said that the Indians’ resurgence was only somewhat surprising. Let me elaborate. Last season the Indians finished worse than every other team except the Twins. With no hot-shot prospect having come up, it would seem unexpected that the Indians would be within a shout of first place. Fortunately for the Indians, there is a thing called free agency. Using this mystical device, the Indians upgraded their offense, getting Michael Bourn, Matt Reynolds and Nick Swisher. Trading to get Drew Stubbs for Shin-Soo Choo in a nine-player deal has not hurt their offensive production much either. All of these moves on offense have transformed Cleveland from the second worst run-scoring offense in the AL to having the fourth most runs scored this year.

What is surprising about the Indians this year, is that their pitching sucks. Better put, their pitching sucks and they still are only 1.5 games behind the Tigers. Their pitching staff is in the bottom third of the league in ERA and WHIP. Both their starters and their relievers have an ERA over 4. Chris “This pot was delivered to my dog” Perez is their closer. On the plus side, a couple of their middle relievers have done well this year, sooooo, they have that going for them…

Verdict: Somehow, in spite of all these obstacles, the Indians are still in the thick of things. Like the Tigers, the needs on this team are quite clear, only more numerous. In addition to bullpen help, the Tribe need an ace. Not just a starter, but a Cliff Lee or a Matt Garza. Rumor has it that the Cubs are in the final stages of dealing Garza, calling in final offers from various teams. The Indians must get in on this trade. They have some top end talent, but much of it is in the lower tiers of their farm system. With the Cubs who are building slowly and surely, however, such a package just might work. Realistically, the Indians probably need a second starter as well. A guy like Ricky Nolasco would have benefited this team greatly. Maybe the Indians could get a pitcher like Bud Norris, who will be arbitration eligible this season, to help their stretch run. The Indians have a lot of pitching holes, but if they can plug up a few of them and continue their clutch play (18-9 in 1-run ball games), they just might be able to pip the heavily favored Tigers for the division.

3. Kansas City Royals (43-49) HOLDERS

I cheated once with the Phillies, so I can cheat again with the Royals. The Royals, however, should hold for a different reason than the Phillies. While the Phillies ability to make a run at the playoffs was (and is) genuinely up in the air, the Kansas City Royals should hold no such delusions. They are eight games out of first in their division and even further back in the Wild Card. Without a miracle run (never a good thing to bet on at the trade deadline), they don’t have a prayer of making the playoffs this year.

Verdict: Normally, not having a shot at the playoffs means you should sell some of your aging veterans for future help. In the case of the Royals, however, they were betting that this would be the year that their exciting young core (Billy Butler, Alex Gorden, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas) would put it all together and compete for a playoff spot. It was with that plan in mind that they traded stud prospect Wil Myers to Tampa for James Shields. The merits of that trade aside, it would be much too early to do any heavy rebuilding. Unlike Toronto, most of KC’s pieces are young and should only get better. Perhaps selling off one or two older, lower quality starters like Bruce Chen or Jeremy Guthrie would be wise (since those kinds of arms always seem to be available in free agency), but beyond that, it would be a major mistake for the Royals to overreact to what has, in all honesty, been another disappointing season for them.

4. Minnesota Twins (39-53) SELLERS

This designation should probably come with an asterisk. The Twins don’t have much to sell. This is a bad team. A very bad team. They do have one thing going for them, however: a quality farm system. Calling up a few of these exciting prospects will at least give fans a reason to come out to Target Field for the rest of the summer.

Verdict: But back to looking at how the Twins should approach the trade deadline. Unlike with most teams in rebuilding mode, the Twins should not trade their closer. This counter-intuitive approach is necessary for the Twins because closer Glenn Perkins is young and has a very team-friendly contract. Now, if the Twins are overwhelmed by an offer, ok, trade him. Otherwise, there is no need to let go of Perkins. Another veteran that the Twins shouldn’t move is Joe Mauer. Looking at his age and his contract (a 30-year-old being paid $23 million through the year 2018), Mauer should be traded (assuming his contract doesn’t scare teams off). There are extenuating circumstances with Mauer, however. He is a Twin Cities kid born and raised. That means that from a marketing perspective, Joe Mauer is worth a lot more to the Twins than he is to other teams. Additionally, Mauer has a no trade clause, making it very difficult to deal him and probably not worth the PR hassle of actively shopping a native-hero. This leaves the Twins with two areas to sell. First, Justin Morneau. He is finally having a decent year after spending the last two seasons battling injuries. He could be especially valuable to an AL contender looking for a reasonably priced bat (free agent after this year) for the stretch run. Second, the pitching staff. I’m not sure there is anyone on this staff (other than Perkins) who generates a lot of interest, but no one (other than Perkins and recently promoted prospect Kyle Gibons) should be off-limits either.

5. Chicago White Sox (37-55) SELLERS

When I saw the Twins were only the second worst team in this division, I asked myself how that could possibly be the case. When I saw that the White Sox were the worst team in the division, it all made sense. How bad are the White Sox? I think one play sums it up best:

Verdict: Unlike the Twins, who do not have much to sell but have a very good farm system, the White Sox have plenty of guys to unload, but a really bad farm system. Baseball Prospectus ranks zero of their prospects in their list of the 101 best prospects. The White Sox should look unload veteran bats like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Jeff Keppinger and even Alexei Ramirez if they can. Each one of those bats have value (though Keppinger’s isn’t much) and can provide some boost to a flagging farm system. Pitchers that should be shopped are bullpen arms like Jesse Crain (assuming his arm troubles are minor) and Matt Lindstrom and starters like Jake Peavy (though with his current injury status, it might be easier to move him in the August waiver period). Plenty of parts to move means plenty of work to do for the White Sox GM. He better do it well or his tenure as GM will be done. But for now, TGID. Thank goodness I’m Done.

CONCA-CAN’T

“It’s like Groundhog Day with these teams; they all just want to play defense. Costa Rica is a lot better at it than Belize and Cuba are.” ~ Landon Donovan.

 

What Donovan is talking about (starting at about the two minute mark) isn’t unusual. It’s a problem that bedevils many Goliaths when they face Davids. Heck, the US even used the strategy to garner a famous win in the 2009 Confederations Cup semi-final against next year’s World Cup winners, Spain. I’m talking, of course, about how inferior teams play a purely defensive style against vastly superior teams.

There are many names for this kind of performance: parking the bus, staying compact, defending in numbers to name a few. Whatever you call it, this strategy can effectively neutralize even the most talented opponents on the right day.

Naturally, that is why minnows play this style. A team that suffers from a talent deficiency can only hope that organization and hard work will make up for their lack of talent. Most of the time, it doesn’t, but on occasion it does.

This is all well and good. Weaker teams should optimize their chances to win. As Herm Edwards said, “You play to win the game.”

The problem is not with any one CONCACAF team playing this style. Rather, the problem is that seemingly every team that faces either the USA or Mexico utilze this strategy.

While, it is unfair to expect the Belizes or Martiniques of the world to try and give the USA or Mexico a game, it is frustrating that even the next best teams in the region do the same thing. When Costa Rica has a must-win game (to win the group instead of the USA) and still refuses to do anything but park the bus, something is horribly, horribly wrong.

Honduras and Costa Rica are clearly the third and fourth most talented teams in the region (pick your order), but they rarely will try to play toe-to-toe with the two regional giants. Occasionally, at home, there will be an attempt to play with an attacking edge, but even on those days, a heavy reliance on counter-attacking football can be found. On the road, those “second-tier” teams might as well not even get off the bus. I would postulate that this is the main reason why Mexico has drawn five of their six Hexagonal World Cup Qualifiers.

Seeing this style of play consistently in CONCACF is well and good for World Cup qualification. When opponents are seeking merely a draw against you, they will rarely finish above you in the standings. Even Mexico with five draws in six games are only in third place and have yet to play Los Ticos of Costa Rica at home.

The problem comes when Mexico and the USA play teams outside of CONCACAF. Whether it’s the shellacking that Mexico took at the Confederations Cup or the embarrassing 4-2 loss in a friendly to a full-strength Belgian squad in May, these types of results occur all too often for the Goliaths of CONCACAF.

If the goal is to win a World Cup (and with the size and talent in the USA and Mexico, I don’t think that is an unreasonable goal), something must change. Allow me to give an example.

In 2006, Australia switched regions, moving from Oceania to Asia. The main reason cited for this switch was to play against a higher level of competition (and reduced travel times, but mostly better competition). It is a well-known maxim that you only get better by playing against better competition.

The results in the test case of Australia are yet to be finalized. It will take time to determine if this move had positive, negative, or no effect. Still, Australia has not missed out on qualifying for either the 2010 or 2014 World Cups. They have matched up well against the other big boys in the region (Japan and South Korea). In my opinion, this move has been at worst neutral thus far for the Aussies, and if Australia can make a run deep into one of the next few World Cups or develop a few super stars, the move to the Asian confederation will have been a smashing success.

You can probably guess where I am going at this point. The USA and Mexico should switch confederations. Playing in horrible stadiums against opponents too weak to do anything but defend in numbers cannot possibly prepare either country for success at the highest levels. I would propose that the USA and Mexico jointly request entry into the South American confederation. Soccer in CONMEBOL is played at the highest level outside of Europe’s elite and is much more competitive than UEFA because of the lack of minnows within the confederation.

Yes, there are problems with this plan. Even though both countries would bring strong teams, there is no guarantee that CONMEBOL would even want both teams. Even if CONMEBOL did want both teams, the rise in costs for Mexico and the USA must be considered. Additionally, as bad as the current travel situation is for CONCACAF teams currently, having European-based players travel all the way to Argentina would only exacerbate the problem.

Despite these problems, the benefits of playing improved competition outweigh those costs. The USA hired Jurgen Klinsmann to raise the quality of the national team. He can only do that so much in a region that can’t and won’t let him reach the levels of soccer that he wants. CONMEBOL will provide a much better proving ground for quality teams like the USA and Mexico. Without this change, the USA and Mexican teams’ Groundhog Day will only continue on in perpetuity.