Step right up. Place your bets. Which running back will stay healthy
In part two of our (Frank Barber and mine) look at the upcoming fantasy season, we play everyone’s favorite game: predict running back totals; better known as who stays healthy. Of course, if we could predict that, we’d be getting paid a lot of money. (SPOILER ALERT: we aren’t getting paid a lot of money). So buyer beware.
Matt Forte – 1600 Yards From Scrimmage (YFS), 55 recs, 10 total TDs
Evan: With Lovie Smith, offense has not always been Chicago’s forte, even as their offense has been mostly Forte. Now with Marc Trestman, an offensive minded coach, Forte could be in line for even more offensive production. Of course, with someone who has featured so heavily for so long, there is always the risk of injury. Forte has struggled the past couple of years to avoid this curse. With how often he sees the questionable status of the injury report, he could be a New England Patriot. Despite the week-to-week uncertainty, Forte has at least been able to play 75 out of 80 regular season games in his career. All of this seems to indicate that he should be able to reach these numbers pretty easily. Yet, I remain hesitant. He has only reached the yardage and reception mark in two years (2008 and 2010 in yards and 2008 and 2009 in receptions), and he has only achieved double digit TDs in 2008. Still, Forte is a great talent and with a better offensive system he should be able to reach the yardage mark and exceed the reception total. I just don’t see getting TD’s ever being his forte though.
Frank: Last season Matt Forte battled injuries and an inept Chicago offense that failed to properly utilize their best offensive weapon not named Brandon Marshall and still managed to put up solid numbers. First year coach Marc Trestman has revamped the Bears offense and has indicated that Forte will play a larger role in both the rushing and passing game. This would make him especially valuable in PPR leagues. However Michael Bush is still in the wings to poach Forte’s TD potential. Forte’s 44 receptions last year were a career low – he has averaged 53 throughout his career. Assuming an uptick in targets Forte could set new career high in receptions and yards from scrimmage. If Forte can stay healthy, I think he will thrive in Trestman’s new offense and go over that stat line. Expect production along the lines of 1700 yards from scrimmage, 65 receptions and 10 TDs.
David Wilson – 1000 YFS, 25 recs, 10 TTDs
Evan: Wilson got a lot of love this offseason after the Giants jettisoned last year’s first-stringer Ahmad Bradshaw. He is a dynamic athlete who consistently wows coaches with his physical talent. The problem is his coach. Whereas Forte has a coach who should utilize his talents more than last season, Wilson is stuck with Tom Coughlin. Coughlin isn’t a bad coach; in fact, that is the problem. Coughlin is such a good coach that he insists on his players doing the little things. Wilson doesn’t do the little things yet. He is bad at blocking and reading a blitz pickup. With Coughlin at the helm, these problems will keep Wilson off the field not only on third down, but also on a quite a few first and second downs. On another team, those problems wouldn’t prevent an athlete like Wilson from reaching these modest goals, but on the Giants, I would temper my expectations. Yes, the upside is there, but I wouldn’t draft Wilson till later in the draft since fellow Giants RB Andre Brown, a more fundamentally sound back, is just as likely to win the starting job.
Frank: Over the final four weeks of last season only six running backs had more points than David Wilson. His raw athleticism and explosiveness were very impressive and he ended the season on a high note. However, prior to those last four weeks, Wilson’s propensity to cough up the ball had him bouncing in and out of Tom Coughlin’s doghouse while Andre Brown excelled as the starter. The latest reports out of Giant’s camp have Brown and Wilson sharing carries this coming season. Wilson is more athletic and explosive than Brown and should get plenty of looks in the passing game. Out of the two backs, I like Wilson more long term, however I think Wilson’s draft price right now is too high. Ranked at #17, he is generally being drafted in the late 3rd round early fourth – for that price there are other RBs available that have a better shot of being the clear #1. I think Wilson’s propensity to fumble does him in and he ends up back in Coughlin’s doghouse. I predict Wilson goes under and ends up closer to 750 yards from scrimmage, 25 receptions, and 7 TDs.
Jamaal Charles – 1800 TYDs, 55 recs, 10 TTDs
Evan: On an insipid Kansas City Chiefs offense, Charles was the lone bright spot. He almost achieved the yardage total while hauling in only 35 receptions. He even managed to score all six of the Chiefs touchdowns last year. (I jest, the Chiefs had at least seven TDs last season.) Now the Chiefs have Andy Reid, who has made Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy fantasy gods (especially in PPR leagues), as their coach. Charles did have a horrific, season-ending injury early in 2011, but he has otherwise stayed healthy in his five year career so injury shouldn’t be any more of a risk than other RBs. With Reid’s West Coast offense tossing him short swing and screen passes, Charles should rack up the receptions and yardage. The TDs, on the other hand, are more of a toss-up. Yes, McCoy had 20 TDs in 2011 with Reid, but he only had 5 last year. Still, if I had to guess, I would guess that Charles will not only reach that TD mark, but beat it.
Frank: Jamaal Charles is one of the most talented backs in the NFL and still only 26 years old. He is poised to have a huge year in Andy Reid’s new offense in Kansas City. Sure, Andy Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but his offenses have also featured some of the most reliable and high-scoring fantasy RBs over the years. I expect Jamaal Charles to have comparable production to Brian Westbrook in his heyday. Last year, Charles had 1725 yards from scrimmage but only 6 TDs. Alex Smith needs an offensive system based on short quick throws. This will benefit Charles as he will get plenty of looks in the flat and he has the speed to turn it up-field. Furthermore Charles TD totals should go up just based on the law of averages. Expect Charles to set new career highs to the tune of 2000 yards from scrimmage, 60 receptions and 10 TDs.
Maurice Jones-Drew – 1600 TYDs, 40 recs, 12 TTDs
Evan: When I was a kid, I loved those choose your own adventure books. Do you turn left or right at the fork in the road? One leads you to glory, the other a dungeon. Of course, as a kid if you guessed wrong, you could just go back to the previous page and change your decision until you got the adventure you wanted. Maurice Jones-Drew is a lot like those books: is he healthy? top 5 back. Is he injured? #firstroundbust. Unlike those books from my childhood, however, you don’t get a redo on fantasy football drafts. MJD is a lot like Forte, always nicked up, but when you look back at his career, he has played most of the regular season games in every season. Other than 2012, MJD has played at least 14 games every season of his seven year career. Personally, I would avoid him in Round 1 and maybe even Round 2 of drafts since MJD is a bigger risk than other backs. However, if you are less risk adverse than I, gamble that he stays healthy and you could reap some big rewards.
Frank: Owners who drafted MJD with a top ten pick last year certainly felt the full pain of his season-ending injury as he had a paltry 500 yards from scrimmage last year with 2 TDs. However, MJD claims he is healthy, pain free, and poised for a bounce back year. With Blaine Gabbert somehow still the starting quarterback in Jacksonville, the Jaguars will need MJD to keep them in games. Expect them to rely heavily on MJD in the offense which will give him plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. Right now MJD is ranked at #16 for RBs and has been going on average late in the second round/early third round. As a RB2 he has immense upside and could possible even reclaim his RB1 status if he can stay healthy and the Jags stay bad (one of these is more likely – I’ll let you guess which one.) I think MJD is good for 1600 yards from scrimmage, but I think he will go over in the receptions catching closer to 55 receptions over the course of the season.
Reggie Bush – 1300 TYDs, 60 recp, 8 TTDs
Evan: Whether Reggie Bush stays healthy or not is not the only issue to consider when deciding if Bush will reach these numbers. How the Lions utilize him is the bigger question. His time in New Orleans saw him used as a more of a receiver out of the backfield, while Miami used him as a more traditional running back. If the Lions follow the New Orleans playbook, and use him as a pass catching back, he will be more valuable in a PPR league. If he is featured as he was in Miami, he will be just as valuable in a standard league but less valuable in a PPR league. Reports out of Detroit seem to indicate that Bush will be catching passes more than running the ball. This is actually bad news on the injury front. On grass and as a feature back, Bush played 31 out of 32 games for the Dolphins. On turf and as a swing back for the Saints, Bush has only played 16 games in one of five seasons. For that reason, I have to expect Bush to go under the yardage and reception marks, though he will get closer to the reception mark than the yardage mark. The TDs are definitely reachable, but I don’t think he gets so many TDs as to overlook the lack of yardage and the injury worries.
Frank: After a disappointing run in New Orleans, Reggie Bush has done much better the last two seasons in Miami putting up respectable rushing and receiving numbers. The move to Detroit should only help his value especially in PPR formats. Bush has good hands and the running back tandem in Detroit last year featured a lot of screens and short passes to the flat. With Bush as the clear #1 the only thing standing between him and a very good season is his health. Bush is always an injury risk and the increased workload in Detroit could result in him being injured. If he stays healthy he is a solid RB2 in PPR leagues. However, I just don’t believe that he will stay healthy all year. Taking into account some time off for injuries I think Bush will go under that stat line. Expect something more along the lines of 1100 yards from scrimmage; 55 receptions; and 6 TDs. If you draft Bush be sure to snag Mikel Leshoure as a late round handcuff for when Bush is injured.
Who Cares? 