TGIF. Thank goodness it’s Friday. In the case of the AL Central, thank goodness for the Cleveland Indians. Without the Indians somewhat surprising resurgence, this division would be more boring than watching grass grow (though a good paint drying session would still top watching this division). Fortunately for every baseball fan outside of the Detroit area (where there are fewer and fewer people anyways), we live in a world were the Cleveland Indians are relevant. I mean, nothing to see God. No need to smite the Cleveland Indians. They suck. You need not raise up your anger against the city of Cleveland again…
1. Detroit Tigers (52-42) BUYERS
Everyone expected the Tigers to run away with this division. Having a lineup with Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera will do that for you. And it isn’t just those two. A savvy signing of Torii Hunter in the offseason, Victor Martinez coming back from a knee injury and speedy Austin Jackson are nice pieces to put with the Bash Brothers. Throw-in a scorching Jhonny Peralta and the only thing surprising about this offense is that they are merely second in the AL in runs scored.
On the surface, the Tigers pitching looks good too. They are third in WHIP, fourth in opponents batting average and sixth in ERA. All good numbers, right? But here’s where numbers lie: the Tigers, while having the best starting rotation in the league, they have the worst bullpen of any contender (twelfth in ERA). With stars like Justin Verlander, break-out sensation Matt Scherzer (I WILL NOT REGRET TRADING HIM AND HARVEY FOR BRAUN IN MY FANTASY LEAGUE!!!) and quality arms such as Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, it isn’t hard to understand why the Tigers starters have been so good. And because their starters have been so good, manager Jim Leyland has had his starters pitch the most innings in the league. With good reason too, since the bullpen has utterly unreliable. It started in Spring Training when rookie Bruce Rondon struggled adapting to the closers role and continued when they had to bring back Jose Valverde only to see him struggle. Luckily for the Tigers, Joaquin Benoit has brought stability to the back-end of the bullpen. This, of course, still leaves Jim Leyland relying on his starters going eight innings to get to Benoit though.
Verdict: If it isn’t obvious to you by now, I… I don’t know… Bullpen. Bullpen. BULLPEN! The Tigers may not need a closer any more, but getting a seventh inning and an eighth inning guy is imperative. If one of those guys happened to already be a closer, than all the better. Other then that obvious need, the Tigers could use a veteran outfield bat off the bench if they can find him on the cheap.
2. Cleveland Indians (51-44) BUYERS
In the lede, I said that the Indians’ resurgence was only somewhat surprising. Let me elaborate. Last season the Indians finished worse than every other team except the Twins. With no hot-shot prospect having come up, it would seem unexpected that the Indians would be within a shout of first place. Fortunately for the Indians, there is a thing called free agency. Using this mystical device, the Indians upgraded their offense, getting Michael Bourn, Matt Reynolds and Nick Swisher. Trading to get Drew Stubbs for Shin-Soo Choo in a nine-player deal has not hurt their offensive production much either. All of these moves on offense have transformed Cleveland from the second worst run-scoring offense in the AL to having the fourth most runs scored this year.
What is surprising about the Indians this year, is that their pitching sucks. Better put, their pitching sucks and they still are only 1.5 games behind the Tigers. Their pitching staff is in the bottom third of the league in ERA and WHIP. Both their starters and their relievers have an ERA over 4. Chris “This pot was delivered to my dog” Perez is their closer. On the plus side, a couple of their middle relievers have done well this year, sooooo, they have that going for them…
Verdict: Somehow, in spite of all these obstacles, the Indians are still in the thick of things. Like the Tigers, the needs on this team are quite clear, only more numerous. In addition to bullpen help, the Tribe need an ace. Not just a starter, but a Cliff Lee or a Matt Garza. Rumor has it that the Cubs are in the final stages of dealing Garza, calling in final offers from various teams. The Indians must get in on this trade. They have some top end talent, but much of it is in the lower tiers of their farm system. With the Cubs who are building slowly and surely, however, such a package just might work. Realistically, the Indians probably need a second starter as well. A guy like Ricky Nolasco would have benefited this team greatly. Maybe the Indians could get a pitcher like Bud Norris, who will be arbitration eligible this season, to help their stretch run. The Indians have a lot of pitching holes, but if they can plug up a few of them and continue their clutch play (18-9 in 1-run ball games), they just might be able to pip the heavily favored Tigers for the division.
3. Kansas City Royals (43-49) HOLDERS
I cheated once with the Phillies, so I can cheat again with the Royals. The Royals, however, should hold for a different reason than the Phillies. While the Phillies ability to make a run at the playoffs was (and is) genuinely up in the air, the Kansas City Royals should hold no such delusions. They are eight games out of first in their division and even further back in the Wild Card. Without a miracle run (never a good thing to bet on at the trade deadline), they don’t have a prayer of making the playoffs this year.
Verdict: Normally, not having a shot at the playoffs means you should sell some of your aging veterans for future help. In the case of the Royals, however, they were betting that this would be the year that their exciting young core (Billy Butler, Alex Gorden, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas) would put it all together and compete for a playoff spot. It was with that plan in mind that they traded stud prospect Wil Myers to Tampa for James Shields. The merits of that trade aside, it would be much too early to do any heavy rebuilding. Unlike Toronto, most of KC’s pieces are young and should only get better. Perhaps selling off one or two older, lower quality starters like Bruce Chen or Jeremy Guthrie would be wise (since those kinds of arms always seem to be available in free agency), but beyond that, it would be a major mistake for the Royals to overreact to what has, in all honesty, been another disappointing season for them.
4. Minnesota Twins (39-53) SELLERS
This designation should probably come with an asterisk. The Twins don’t have much to sell. This is a bad team. A very bad team. They do have one thing going for them, however: a quality farm system. Calling up a few of these exciting prospects will at least give fans a reason to come out to Target Field for the rest of the summer.
Verdict: But back to looking at how the Twins should approach the trade deadline. Unlike with most teams in rebuilding mode, the Twins should not trade their closer. This counter-intuitive approach is necessary for the Twins because closer Glenn Perkins is young and has a very team-friendly contract. Now, if the Twins are overwhelmed by an offer, ok, trade him. Otherwise, there is no need to let go of Perkins. Another veteran that the Twins shouldn’t move is Joe Mauer. Looking at his age and his contract (a 30-year-old being paid $23 million through the year 2018), Mauer should be traded (assuming his contract doesn’t scare teams off). There are extenuating circumstances with Mauer, however. He is a Twin Cities kid born and raised. That means that from a marketing perspective, Joe Mauer is worth a lot more to the Twins than he is to other teams. Additionally, Mauer has a no trade clause, making it very difficult to deal him and probably not worth the PR hassle of actively shopping a native-hero. This leaves the Twins with two areas to sell. First, Justin Morneau. He is finally having a decent year after spending the last two seasons battling injuries. He could be especially valuable to an AL contender looking for a reasonably priced bat (free agent after this year) for the stretch run. Second, the pitching staff. I’m not sure there is anyone on this staff (other than Perkins) who generates a lot of interest, but no one (other than Perkins and recently promoted prospect Kyle Gibons) should be off-limits either.
5. Chicago White Sox (37-55) SELLERS
When I saw the Twins were only the second worst team in this division, I asked myself how that could possibly be the case. When I saw that the White Sox were the worst team in the division, it all made sense. How bad are the White Sox? I think one play sums it up best:
Verdict: Unlike the Twins, who do not have much to sell but have a very good farm system, the White Sox have plenty of guys to unload, but a really bad farm system. Baseball Prospectus ranks zero of their prospects in their list of the 101 best prospects. The White Sox should look unload veteran bats like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Jeff Keppinger and even Alexei Ramirez if they can. Each one of those bats have value (though Keppinger’s isn’t much) and can provide some boost to a flagging farm system. Pitchers that should be shopped are bullpen arms like Jesse Crain (assuming his arm troubles are minor) and Matt Lindstrom and starters like Jake Peavy (though with his current injury status, it might be easier to move him in the August waiver period). Plenty of parts to move means plenty of work to do for the White Sox GM. He better do it well or his tenure as GM will be done. But for now, TGID. Thank goodness I’m Done.
Who Cares? 